Decisions by some canvassing boards to count illegal overseas absentee ballots. [20] It was expected that had they been able to vote, most would have chosen the Democratic candidate. This showcases a great starting point for dividend investors and portrays potential consistency for short-term to mid-term returns. On December 9, the Court suspended the manual recount, in progress for only several hours, on the grounds that irreparable harm could befall Bush, according to a concurring opinion by Justice Antonin Scalia. do not count any votes for the marked candidate (4): Counties that count votes for the marked candidate if the write-in is. Another candidate fourth condition on knowledge is sensitivity. Various flaws and improprieties in Florida's electoral processes were immediately apparent, while others were reported after later investigation. Orienting and understanding a Sensitivity Analysis is useful for investors to determine their ideal purchase price (Figure 11). The analysis from the multimethod ensemble indicates that a global increase in temperature of 1 C will reduce global rice yield by an average of 3.2 3.7%, much less than for maize and wheat (Fig. [10] The county canvassing board was then to decide whether to do a recount, as well as the method of the recount, in those three precincts. [19]:221234.mw-parser-output .templatequote{overflow:hidden;margin:1em 0;padding:0 40px}.mw-parser-output .templatequote .templatequotecite{line-height:1.5em;text-align:left;padding-left:1.6em;margin-top:0}. The historical dividend data can be an important tool for analyzing potential future scenarios. ", "Irish-American Republicans - Our Achievements", "Miami Mayor Denies Gore Urged Him to Publicly Support Recount", "Vote-swapping Web sites are legal, appeals court (finally) says", "Nader's Traders vs. State Regulators: Examining the Controversy over Internet Vote Swapping in the 2000 Presidential Election", "Florida Supreme Court Stays Certification of Florida Presidential Ballots; Counties Counting Overseas Absentee Ballots", "Text: Bush Campaign Adviser James A. Baker III", "Text: Gore Campaign Chairman William Daley", "The Butterfly Did It: The Aberrant Vote for Buchanan in Palm Beach County, Florida", "Buchanan camp: Bush claims are "nonsense", "THE 2000 ELECTIONS: THE PALM BEACH BALLOT; Florida Democrats Say Ballot's Design Hurt Gore", "PALM BEACH COUNTY CANVASSING BOARD v. HARRIS", "Palm Beach County Canvassing Board v. Harris", "SUPPLEMENTAL BRIEF OF THE PALM BEACH COUNTY CANVASSING BOARD, FOLLOWING REMAND FROM THE SUPREME COURT OF THE UNITED STATES", "The Lawyers' Role in Selecting the President: A Complete Legal History of the 2000 Election", "Did Illegal Overseas Absentee Ballots Decide the 2000 U.S. Presidential Election? Custom Scenario Buildout Part 1 9:54. Florida Secretary of State Katherine Harris's certification of the election results was thus upheld, allowing Florida's electoral votes to be cast for Bush, making him president-elect. Only a fourth of the variance consisted of optical ballots. As of this writing, JPM is trading around the $106 price range and prices within 2% are highlighted in green. Linear model that uses a polynomial to model curvature. That first day's results reduced the margin to just over 900 votes. Utilizing conservative expectations for a perpetual dividend growth of 3% combined with a long term dividend return expectation of 7% leads to rating JPM a "Buy" around the $105 trading range. Scenario Analysis vs. Uncertainty in risk assessment can be present in the characterization of the exposure scenario, the parameter estimates, and model predictions. With only two hours remaining until the December 12 deadline, the Supreme Court's order effectively ended the recount. The goal of a long-term dividend investor is to invest in firms that have a high likelihood of maintaining growing dividend payments throughout the investors lifespan (perpetuity). [11] If the board discovered an error that in its judgment could affect the outcome of the election, they were then authorized to do a full recount of the ballots. Scenario 1. As the manual recounts continued, the battle to certify the results intensified. Finance activities take place in financial systems at various scopes, thus the field can be roughly These bearish markets provide ample opportunity for contrarian and long-term focused investors. Investors can utilize quantitative methods augmented by investor expectations to determine a purchase price for JPM. Moving forward into analyzing this statistical data creates two potential scenarios using Monte Carlo simulations relevant to dividend focused investors. Some have argued that awarding the electors in this manner would be illegal. [1], The controversy began on election night, November 7, 2000, when the national television networks, using information provided to them by the Voter News Service, an organization formed by the Associated Press to help determine the outcome of the election through early result tallies and exit polling, first called Florida for Gore in the hour after polls closed in the peninsula (in the Eastern time zone) but about ten minutes before they closed in the heavily Republican counties of the panhandle (in the Central time zone). The Florida election was closely scrutinized after Election Day. 10. JPM price return vs S&P 500 YTD (Seeking Alpha). rejected by the Florida Supreme Court in its ruling of December 8, 2000, the lightly populated counties of Gadsden, Hamilton, Lafayette and Union. On the other hand, he said, Democrats talked like referees with a fear of pushing too hard, not wanting to be seen as sore losers. This immediately reduced the Bush margin from 537 to 154 (537215168 is 154). But theres a key difference. Bush's lawyers argued that recounting votes in just four counties violated the 14th Amendment and also that similarly punched ballots could be tabulated differently since Florida had no detailed statutory standards for hand-counting votes. In such case, only the write-in vote is void." Is this happening to you frequently? From affirmative action and hate-crime laws it's a small step to ensuring that all voters, however negligent, have their intent, however vague, reflected in the final result of an election. Finance activities take place in financial systems at various scopes, thus the field can be roughly the same name, a blank space or a historical or fictional name (1): the same name, a blank space or an uncertified person's name, the same name, a blank space, a historical or fictional name or an uncertified person's name. Rowman & Littlefield. Upon such an overvote, the entire vote for that office shall be void and shall not be counted. Monte Carlo dividend simulation results - Scenario 1 (Author). According to their results, Bush won under stricter standards and Gore won under looser standards. Negative sign indicates number of votes that decision caused to be excluded from state certified total. The NORC study (see below) did not address either of the concerns about overseas absentee ballots and Nassau County's certification change, as their effects were already included in the baseline totals. The "set aside" ballots were dimpled ballots that were challenged by the two parties. A key feature of scenarios is that they should challenge conventional wisdom about the future. Sauls also rejected Gore's contest of the election result on December 4, and Gore appealed that decision too. On November 14, Democratic lawyer Mark Herron authored a memo on how to challenge flawed ballots, including overseas ballots cast by members of the military. Scenario analysis makes assumptions about multiple variables and factors for possible future scenarios and looks at how each would affect the business. With cash prizes and a chance to chat with the CEO, this competition - open to all contributors - is not one you want to miss. The utilization of historical data helps investors understand how JPM has performed over a longer period of time. Custom Scenario Buildout Part 1 9:54. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. As a dividend investor, the goal is to invest in firms that have a high likelihood of maintaining growing dividend payments throughout the investors lifespan. Custom Scenario Buildout Part 1 9:54. Positive sign indicates number of votes that decision caused to be included (or put back) in state certified total. A nationwide December 1421, 2000 Harris poll asked, "If everyone who tried to vote in Florida had their votes counted for the candidate who they thought they were voting forwith no misleading ballots and infallible voting machineswho do you think would have won the election, George W. Bush or Al Gore?". Undervotes from punch-card counties give new votes to candidates in roughly the same proportion as the county's official vote. Controversies included: Many voters in Palm Beach County who intended to vote for Gore actually marked their ballots for Pat Buchanan or spoiled their ballots because they found the ballot's layout to be confusing. JPM annual dividend growth rate - Scenario 1 (Author). Two-coder general agreement for punch-card counties. What is CVP Analysis? We have to believe that based on the vote totals elsewhere. Scenario 1. Please. If the p-value becomes 0.03 under this scenario, then the results are robust. Gore said he disagreed with the Court's decision, but conceded the election. Including overvotes in the above totals for undervotes gives different margins of victory: The overvotes with write-in names were also noted by Florida State University public policy professor and elections observer, Lance deHaven-Smith, in his interview with Research in Review at Florida State University:[81]. The Scenario 2 data shows a much closer mean and median growth rate which are 7.12% and 5.56% respectively. It was anecdotal evidence at best, and local authorities argued persuasively that the police presence near a polling place was pure coincidence. 12. These standards are applied to both undervotes and overvotes. Example 1: If an investor utilizes the Monte Carlo simulation from Scenario 2 expecting a median growth rate of 5.35% (rounded down to 5%, yellow row) while expecting a 9% return on dividend stocks, then that investor would have a purchase price of $105 which places JPM currently around an appropriate buying range. It also remarks that there were variations between examiners and that election officials often did not provide the same number of undervotes as were counted on Election Day. Conservative writer Andrew Sullivan in a contemporaneous article:[61]. The only exception: African-Americans. About 10 p.m. EST on December 12, the United States Supreme Court handed down its ruling. To understand scenario analysis vs sensitivity analysis, one should first understand that investment decisions are based on a set of assumptions and inputs. Following the machine recount, the Gore campaign requested a manual recount in four counties. Gordon Growth Model formula (Investopedia). Sensitivity Analysis. Labor Archives of Washington, University of Washington Libraries Special Collections. the possibility of moving into "Strong Buy" range if this bearish market continues pressuring equities down. But theres a key difference. The Palm Beach County recount and the Miami-Dade County recount (having been suspended) were still incomplete at 5:00p.m. on November 26, when Harris certified the statewide vote count with Bush ahead by 537 votes. The act also divided the country into judicial districts, which were in turn organized into circuits. Mass cytometry time-of-flight (CyTOF) is a powerful technique to profile immune cells and could be applied to tumour detection. The Court further held that it had "considerable uncertainty" as to the reasons given by the Florida Supreme Court for its decision. The NORC adjusted its analysis for the Orange County results and a few minor differences by increasing the starting baseline vote total by 535 votes. The Florida recount was the subject of the 2008 television film Recount, which aired on HBO. The organization analyzed 61,190 undervotes and 113,820 overvotes. Nine counties (Alachua, Columbia, DeSoto, Glades, Lake, Sarasota, Seminole, Sumter and Wakulla) reported that it was their intent to count reclaimable overvotes under the Florida Supreme Court order. A computational method to identify cell types within a complex tissue, based on analysis of gene expression profiles, is described in this paper. Mass cytometry time-of-flight (CyTOF) is a powerful technique to profile immune cells and could be applied to tumour detection. 5.1 Sensitivity. 4: Final level of data validation FMVA Required 2.5h Scenario & Sensitivity Analysis in Excel . The Desired Return shows a scale of different investor return expectations ranging from a 5% to 17% return. Stepwise regression and Best subsets regression: These automated Democrats claimed that many of these were not felons and should have been eligible to vote under Florida law. There is a real issue here about what voting actually means. Youre testing one input/variable and measuring how it impacts your output. Scenarios 15:16. The lack of certainty in the premises and inputs brings about investment risk. Meanwhile, on December 6 the Republican-controlled Florida legislature convened a special session to appoint a slate of electors pledged to Bush, as the U.S. Constitution bestows upon state legislatures the duty to determine how its state's electors are appointed. On November 21, the Florida Supreme Court ruled unanimously that manual counts in Broward, Palm Beach and Miami-Dade Counties must be included and set 5:00p.m. on November 26 as the earliest time for certification. A CAGR formula considers the annual growth with a beginning and ending period and is a more accurate way of measuring returns. The Sensitivity Analysis shows that as the growth rate declines given a constant return expectation, the purchase price decreases for JPM. Stepwise regression and Best subsets regression: These automated This means that 95% of the historical data should fall between those values and the large standard deviation suggests a very large potential range of outcomes. The longstanding case law in Florida [ ] has held that the intent of the voters as shown by their ballots should be given effect. What is scenario analysis? It utilizes a constant cash flow (dividend), an expected growth rate (shown in the dividend growth rate summary), and the investors expected return to derive a purchase price for a position (Figure 10). Gore request for recounts in four counties: Florida Supreme Court order: accepts completed recounts for Broward, Palm Beach, Volusia and Miami-Dade (139 precincts); applies the above "prevailing standard" (but with no overvotes) to remaining Miami-Dade and other 63 counties. Scenario analysis is sometimes confused with sensitivity analysis. On December 4, the U.S. Supreme Court returned this matter to the Florida Supreme Court with an order vacating its earlier decision. Of those overvotes, 68,476 chose Gore and a minor candidate; 23,591 chose Bush and a minor candidate. [36], The project's goal was to determine the reliability and accuracy of the systems used in the voting process, including how different systems correlated with voter mistakes. Compounded annual growth rate formula (Investopedia). Meanwhile, Republicans relied on their own 52-page manual for the same purpose. 2A). The results were 49% for Gore and 40% for Bush, with 11% uncertain or not wishing to respond.[82]. It was ostensibly completed on November 10 in the 66 Florida counties that used vote-counting machines and reduced Bush's lead to 327 votes. Figure 1. [75][76], Based on the NORC review, the media group concluded that if the disputes over the validity of all the ballots in question had been consistently resolved and any uniform standard applied, the electoral result would have been reversed and Gore would have won by 60 to 171 votes (with, for each punch ballot, at least two of the three ballot reviewers' codes being in agreement). As the manual recounts progressed, most of Florida's counties were considering overseas absentee ballots. Figure 8 represents a summary of JPM dividend growth rates that investors can use to form their inputs into their investments. On November 9, the Bush campaign announced they had hired George H. W. Bush's former Secretary of State James Baker and Republican political consultant Roger Stone to oversee their legal team,[8][9] and the Gore campaign hired Bill Clinton's former Secretary of State Warren Christopher. Half of the overvotes in Duval County had one presidential candidate marked on each page, making their vote illegal under Florida law. In order to normalize the assumptions for modeling, we can re-run the model to find the dividend growth rate while removing everything outside of the 95% confidence interval which are the variables outside of -2.1% to 29.7% (Figure 6). In a world of uncertainty, scenarios are intended to explore alternatives that may significantly alter the basis for business-as-usual assumptions. Also note that the standard deviation is 55.3% with a 95% confidence interval between -2.1% and 29.7%. The Florida Statutes contemplate that where electronic or electromechanical voting systems are used, no vote is to be declared invalid or void if there is a clear indication of the intent of the voter as determined by the county canvassing board. A larger consortium of news organizations, including USA Today, The Miami Herald, Knight Ridder, The Tampa Tribune, and five other newspapers next conducted a full recount of all machine-rejected ballots, including both undervotes and overvotes. While Democrats did make their way down to Florida, there was nothing like the certainty or the passion that ignited Republicans. On November 11, it joined a group of Florida voters in suing in federal district court for a preemptive injunction to stop all manual recounting of votes in Florida. Sensitivity, to a first approximation, is this counterfactual relation: Ss belief that p is sensitive if and only if, if p were false, S would not believe that p. A sensitivity condition on knowledge was defended by Robert Nozick (1981). Miami-Dade County decided on November 17 to conduct a recount but suspended it on November 22. JPM is often showcased as a good dividend stock by many dividend focused investors. Even though four other Optiscan counties (Hamilton, Polk, Seminole, Taylor) manually reviewed machine-rejected ballots for votes to include in their certified totals, Includes increase in Orange County's unofficially revised machine-tabulated vote total, due to machine later counting 512 ballots that were previously machine-rejected ("could not be distinguished from ballots that were accepted and counted they appeared to be properly completed"): Gore 249, Bush 184 (total 433). While utilizing short term scorecards is a beneficial starting point, the focus on long-term investments makes dividend performance over longer periods of time more challenging to predict and increases uncertainty for the future. Four counties distributed sample ballots to voters that differed from the actual ballot used on election day, including Duval County, which used a caterpillar ballot, so called because the list of presidential candidates stretched over two pages. Utilizing quantitative methods for investment decisions is intended to help mitigate risk. Sensitivity Analysis, among other models, is put much more to use as a decision support model than merely a tool to reach one optimal solution. The intent of this article is to value JPM for long-term dividend focused investors. Under the FAC, a ballot with any other name written in (including Bush and Gore, who were not qualified as write-in candidates) was not an overvote, but rather a valid vote for the candidate whose name was marked by the voter. Scenario & Sensitivity Analyses. Fitted line plots: If you have one independent variable and the dependent variable, use a fitted line plot to display the data along with the fitted regression line and essential regression output.These graphs make understanding the model more intuitive. Quantitative methods to address uncertainty include non-probabilistic approaches such as sensitivity analysis and probabilistic methods such as Monte Carlo analysis. Regarding the second issue, the court ruled that the statutory scheme must be interpreted in light of the Florida state constitution's declaration that "all political power is inherent in the people," with any ambiguities therefore construed "liberally." 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